Saleh Al Arouri: Hamas says senior leader killed in attack in southern Beirut
CNNJan 02
Gallant Tells US Envoy 'Short Window of Time' for Diplomatic Solution with Hezbollah
The Facts
US special envoy Amos Hochstein met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and war cabinet member Benny Gantz on Thursday. This comes after Israel killed Saleh al-Arouri, the Deputy Head of Hamas's Political Bureau, in Beirut earlier this week. Gallant told Hochstein that Israel preferred diplomacy but there's "a short window of time" to find one; Israel reportedly wants Hezbollah to withdraw six miles from the border.
A day after al-Arouri's killing, Hezbollah experienced its most deadly day on its border with Israel, losing nine of its members on Wednesday in Israeli strikes. Thousands attended al-Arouri's funeral in Beirut on Thursday, including Hamas's senior leadership in Lebanon, representatives of several other Palestinian groups, and members of Hezbollah; since Oct. 7, dozens of Lebanese civilians and more than 140 Hezbollah members have been killed.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Though, of course, Israel has a right to dismantle Hamas's military capabilities and defend itself from terror, regional escalation is simply not in the interest of the US or Israel. A war with Hezbollah in Lebanon would be a disaster and likely spiral into an all-out regional war with Iran. Israel should focus on extricating Hamas from the Gaza Strip in a humane way and eliminating Hamas's leadership.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene.
Anti-Israel narrative
Hezbollah will deal with Israel's belligerent and aggressive behavior at a time it deems most advantageous, as the Lebanese resistance does not just react to security incidents but makes painstaking calculations to both deter Israel from violating Lebanon's sovereignty and avoid an unnecessary and destructive conflict. Israel's leadership should keep in mind that Hezbollah is more than ready for an all-out war and can inflict serious losses. Israel, backed by the US, is committing atrocious crimes in Gaza to which Hezbollah has been forced to respond.
Nerd narrative
There's a 29% chance that state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.