NATO Must Prepare to Defend Its Weakest Point—the Suwalki Corridor
Foreign PolicyMar 03, 2022
German Military Document: NATO Preparing for Russian Attack in 2025
The Facts
NATO and Germany are preparing for a possible war with Russia in 2025, according to a German Defense Ministry document obtained by German publication BILD. The classified planning document outlines a hypothetical series of events from February 2024 to the spring of next year, predicting that Russia will attack NATO's eastern flank in Lithuania and NATO's subsequent response.
The document forecasts that Russia will mobilize 200K troops in February and that it will launch a new offensive in Ukraine this spring. It goes on to predict that, due to insufficient Western arms, Ukraine's military will be defeated by June, before Russia wages a campaign of cyber-espionage and other means of hybrid warfare on Western countries, namely the Baltic States.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Although the US and its Western partners are doing everything they can to prevent Russian aggression in Ukraine, they must prepare for the scenario that Russia will hit somewhere they're not expecting: the Suwałki Gap, near the borders of Poland and Lithuania. This is the next logical step of Putin's imperial ambitions.
Pro-Russia narrative
It was NATO, not Russia, that announced a buildup of military forces in Lithuania. This escalation threatens Russia's Kaliningrad region, therefore Russia must respond accordingly to ensure its people are protected. As always, the US and the West are carrying out provocations and then blaming Russia for the consequences.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1.5% chance that Russia will annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.