Ariel Henry: Haiti's prime minister resigns as law and order collapses
BBC NewsMar 12
Haiti: Kenya Pauses UN Policing Deployment
The Facts
The Kenyan government decided on Tuesday to halt its long-planned deployment of 1K police officers to Haiti as part of a UN security mission after Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry announced that he would resign.
The Kenyan Foreign Ministry argued that given "the critical ground situation" following the latest political events and spiraling gang violence in the country, security forces could only be deployed if there is a "constitutional authority in Haiti."
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Although the Kenyan government's decision is understandable, there's no need to delay the deployment of its police forces. Washington will ensure that a transitional council is set up in the next few days, which will then appoint an interim Prime Minister paving the way for free and fair elections in Haiti. Washington has approved $300M in funding for the security mission and is counting on Kenya to honor its commitment to support Haiti.
Establishment-critical narrative
UN and US-backed troops have been sent to keep the peace in Haiti before, and things only got worse. Not only did these outside forces establish an unelected leader, but they also mistakenly unleashed cholera on the Caribbean state of 11M people. Whether this operation leads to a new transition plan or not, the Haitian government has no ability to regain control of its capital, let alone conduct free elections. History is likely to repeat itself here, meaning the safety and economy of Haiti will deteriorate further.
Nerd narrative
There's a 57% chance that Haiti will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.