Haiti: Prime Minister Henry Resigns Amid National Instability

Haiti: Prime Minister Henry Resigns Amid National Instability
Image copyright: Spencer Platt/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The decision by Prime Minister Ariel Henry to resign signals that he accepts responsibility for the Caribbean nation's grave security situation but also that he's willing to head the transitional government until a new administration has been elected. The armed gangs have demanded that Henry resign or risk civil war. The regional Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM) has offered the necessary tools for a peaceful democratic transition once the UN's multinational security force arrives in Haiti.

Establishment-critical narrative

The Prime Minister has done what the gangs have requested him to do. He resigned. However, this does not appear to be sufficient for the gangs, who have pledged to attack any foreign troops. They regard a UN-led multinational security force in Haiti as a provocation. The gangs will not be represented in the presidential college, whose policies might even unintentionally fuel even more violence and riots. Haiti will have to brace itself because it looks like it will get worse before it gets any better.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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