Hezbollah Launches Deepest Attack Into Israel Since War Began

    Hezbollah Launches Deepest Attack Into Israel Since War Began
    Image copyright: Amir Levy/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

    The Facts

    • Hezbollah launched its deepest strike into Israel since the two began exchanging fire across the Lebanese-Israeli border shortly after Hamas' Oct. 7 surprise attack on Wednesday, with the group saying it had launched "a combined air attack" on two Israeli bases north of the city of Acre.

    • The Israeli military denied that the drones reached their intended targets, saying they were intercepted and caused no damage or casualties. An Israeli strike immediately after Hezbollah's attack killed at least two people — including a child in the town of Hanin — according to Lebanon’s state news agency.


    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US will always support Israel in maintaining its security. However, Netanyahu has gone too far with the war in Gaza, and the US will continue to stress the need for restraint and caution.

    Pro-Israel narrative

    Israel has made clear time and time again that it will not tolerate Iranian-backed terrorists operating near its borders. Iran is playing a dangerous game through its attempts to destabilize the region, and Israel must deter Tehran from believing that it can gain anything from this war. Regardless of the UN's campaign to demonize Israel, Israel never wanted this war and has been forced to respond to a terrible situation. However, it will aggressively pursue its interests to ensure the security of its citizens

    Pro-Palestine narrative

    Reflexive US support for Israel over the decades has finally culminated in a horrifying display of human brutality — mass famine against the Palestinian people. Besides moral consideration around supporting Israel's slaughter in Gaza, Israel has consistently proven time and time again that it is a bad ally that is highly unreliable. While American and Israeli interests continue to diverge, successive American leaders have failed to recalibrate. Now, the US is risking a regional war by supporting a rogue Israeli state.

    Narrative D

    Hezbollah continues to demonstrate its capabilities and restraint, and Israel should keep in mind the weak position it currently faces. The resistance has been clear from day one that it does not want to see this war spiral into a regional conflict. Rather, Hezbollah and its allies only seek to end Israel's crimes in Gaza. Even the Israeli military has acknowledged that Hezbollah's arsenal is fully intact, and a war would be very costly.


    Metaculus Prediction


    Go Deeper


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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