India: PM Modi Claims Third Term, BJP Loses Majority

India: PM Modi Claims Third Term, BJP Loses Majority
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The Facts

  • India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its majority on Tuesday, receiving just 240 seats — 32 short of the halfway mark of 272 — in the six-week-long general election.

  • However, incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi has claimed victory and can still form the government for a third time as the BJP-led NDA alliance has won 292 seats in the 543-member parliament.

The Spin

Narrative A

The BJP has received the largest share of votes and got more seats than the combined opposition, which shows that the Indian voters have once again shown full faith in Modi's ability to lead the country to greater heights.

Narrative B

With Modi's party losing a majority, Indian voters have actually punished him for crossing some red lines, including propagating Islamophobia, using strong-arm tactics to subdue media and political opponents, and hijacking all constitutional institutions.

Narrative C

With a resurgent opposition and BJP in the minority, this verdict will likely affect political stability and policy continuity. While Modi may still form the government, as he would need the support of his allies to stay in power, it would be challenging for him to take bold policy measures.

Metaculus Prediction

Public figures in this story

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