Indonesia: Subianto Claims Victory in Presidential Election

    Indonesia: Subianto Claims Victory in Presidential Election
    Photo: Oscar Siagian/Getty Images News via Getty Images

    The Facts

    • Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto has claimed victory in Wednesday's presidential election as unofficial results with about 85% of the ballots counted show him leading the race with nearly 60% of the vote.

    • If official results next month confirm these preliminary counts from pollsters, the 72-year-old is likely to win the presidency outright. A candidate must secure over 50% of the votes as well as at least 20% of the vote in over half of Indonesia's provinces to avoid a run-off.

    The Spin

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Gen. Prabowo Subianto, a longtime US protégé who managed to gain support from his country's political elites ahead of this presidential race, has long expressed support for authoritarian military rule. Therefore, his likely election victory represents nothing but the end of democracy in Indonesia.

    Pro-establishment narrative

    Prabowo Subianto indeed has a troubled record regarding human rights and his own short temper but sensationalism over his possible presidency is unfounded. Those supporting his presidential bid are not discontent with democracy — quite the contrary. In fact, Subianto represents continuity and an implicit faith in democratic institutions.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 7.5% chance that Indonesia will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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