Deadly Iranian Strike in Northern Iraq Inflames Tensions in the Region
New York TimesJan 16
The Facts
On Monday, Iran struck what it claimed to be a base for Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad, along with other locations allegedly hosting Iranian opposition groups, in Erbil — the capital of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq. Baghdad recalled its ambassador to Tehran in response on Tuesday.
Four civilians were killed and six injured, according to the Kurdish regional government, as the ballistic missile struck what Iran called Israel's “spy headquarters” for the region, located near the US Consulate.
The Spin
Pro-Iran narrative
Contrary to claims from the West, Iran isn't the one inflaming tensions in the region. Monday's strikes — which abided by international laws — are a direct response to terrorist actions committed against Iran, which not only has a right but a duty to defend its civilians.
Nerd narrative
There is a 16% chance that a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1K deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus forecasting community.