Israel approved Rafah military operation and started striking Hamas targets
PolitcoMay 06
Israel Captures Gaza's Rafah Crossing
Image copyright: Amir Levy/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Facts
Israeli forces captured Gaza's Rafah Crossing early on Tuesday after calling for the evacuation of eastern Rafah on Monday. After the evacuation orders were given, Hamas announced that it would accept a cease-fire proposal, but Israel said it did not fulfill its core demands.
The UN and other international agencies said that the closing of the Rafah and Kerem Shalom Crossings effectively cut Gaza off from outside aid. Over 1M displaced Palestinians have taken refuge in Rafah, which is also a crucial logistics point for aid delivery. Hamas accused Israel of trying to undermine cease-fire talks.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has gotten out of hand and must be remedied. Netanyahu must keep his promises, and the US has been clear regarding its position on Rafah.
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel has reached a decisive point in this conflict. If Israel gives in to international pressure, it will make clear to the nation's enemies that it's weak and cannot stand up for itself. Such weakness will only encourage another attack like Oct. 7., which is simply unacceptable. Israel must continue to push into Rafah and win this war.
Pro-Palestine narrative
The most consistent obstacle in these negotiations has been Netanyahu and his far-right government. If Netanyahu wasn't hellbent on salvaging his political career and if the Biden admin. wasn't so weak, perhaps thousands of lives could have been saved. Either way, the ball is in Israel's court, and everything must be done to ensure the end of this brutal war on Gaza.
Nerd narrative
There's a 70% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.