The war in Gaza may widen. The Biden admin is getting ready for it.
POLITICOJan 04
Israel, Qatar Agree on Medicine Delivery for Gaza Hostages
The Facts
Israel announced that it had made an agreement with Qatar on Friday that will allow the delivery of medicines to hostages held by Hamas in Gaza "in the next few days." Some of the hostages are elderly and have chronic illnesses, and the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, which represents the families of the hostages, said it wanted "visual proof" that the medications had been delivered to the hostages. The hostages' families petitioned the International Committee of the Red Cross to visit the hostages to deliver medicine and inspect their conditions, but the Red Cross has said Hamas has refused this request.
Meanwhile, Israel on Friday responded to South Africa's case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the Hague that accuses Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. Israel's legal team argued that it was merely defending itself and it was Hamas that was genocidal, calling for the court to dismiss the case as groundless and reject South Africa's request to order it to halt its military operations in Gaza.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip unlivable. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.
Narrative D
Hezbollah will deal with Israel's belligerent and aggressive behavior at a time it deems most advantageous, as the Lebanese resistance does not just react to security incidents but makes painstaking calculations to both deter Israel from violating Lebanon's sovereignty and avoid an unnecessary and destructive conflict. Israel's leadership should keep in mind that Hezbollah is more than ready for an all-out war and can inflict serious losses. Israel, backed by the US, is committing atrocious crimes in Gaza to which Hezbollah has been forced to respond.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that a shared power arrangement will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.