Japan’s Population Crisis Nears Point of No Return
The DiplomatFeb 03, 2023
Japan's New Births Fell to Record Low in 2023
The Facts
Preliminary data released Tuesday by Japan’s government shows 2023 was the eighth consecutive year of declining annual births, reaching a record low of approximately 759K. Deaths in 2023 also reached a record of approximately 1.6M.
The yearly birth total is a 5.1% decrease from 2022. Marriages have also declined by 5.9% from the year prior to approximately 489K — a 90-year low.
The Spin
Narrative A
The government is planning radical countermeasures to boost Japan's birth rate, but it may be too late. Unfortunately, the damage may be irreversible and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio may have a hard time selling new policies to the public because of his lack of popularity. Japan is in demographic trouble.
Narrative B
Japan's demographic crisis is not an isolated event, as China, North Korea, South Korea, Russia, Taiwan, and the US are among the nations about to face the same reality. In this case, Japan may have a leg up because it has had time to devise its plan for dealing with a population decrease since the '70s.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Japan will experience a record low year of 576K births between now and 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.