War-Torn Myanmar Plans to Hold Elections. Will They Matter?
Council on Foreign RelationsMar 09, 2023
Junta Chief: Myanmar Polls May Not Be Held Nationwide
The Facts
Myanmar's military junta has reportedly said the country plans to hold an election, but it may not be conducted nationwide as the regime faces a spate of armed rebellions.
Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar's self-proclaimed prime minister, told the Russian state news agency Tass that authorities are verifying voter lists, adding that polls will be held "if the state is peaceful and stable."
The Spin
Narrative A
The Myanmar junta's plan to hold elections is unlikely to carry legitimacy, with opposition parties banned and the main opposition decimated. The military is seeking credibility amid guerrilla threats. Anti-junta forces control significant territory, causing the deadliest conflict since Ukraine, even if not as well-known worldwide. Only real elections can accommodate Myanmar's ethnic diversity.
Narrative B
The opposition rebel militia of Myanmar is making the country's military junta sweat. Significant losses, widespread displacement and casualties, and loss of morale have hurt the rulers. The turmoil is a potential turning point in the struggle for power in the Southeast Asian nation, with its diverse opposition forces uniting and hopefully determined enough this time to overthrow the junta.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Myanmar will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by December 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.