The war in Gaza may widen. The Biden admin is getting ready for it.
POLITICOJan 04
The Facts
A shipment of medicine expected to be delivered to Hamas-held Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip was reportedly en route from Egypt on Wednesday after a French and Qatari-mediated deal — the first since a weeklong truce agreed to in November. According to a senior Hamas official, the deal stipulates that for every box of medicine provided for the hostages, 1K boxes would be sent in for Palestinians, and includes the delivery of additional humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza.
This plan was announced last week but was allegedly held up by logistical problems. It remains unclear how the medicine will be delivered to hostages, with Israel saying that Qatari representatives in Gaza would be involved. Though the US said that Qatar has also been overseeing "very serious, extensive discussions" about a possible new hostage release deal, intense fighting was reported in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, on Wednesday.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxies. Hezbollah in Lebanon is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip unlivable. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.
Pro-Iran narrative
Israel, with the full backing of the US, is committing genocide in Gaza, something Iran and its allies cannot tolerate. As resistance groups like the Houthis show their solidarity with Palestinians by enforcing a blockade on Israel, Joe Biden must understand that supporting Israel's crimes will only lead to more escalation in the region. The resistance's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, not start a far larger regional conflict. However, if the US and Israel continue to flagrantly disregard international law, the resistance may be forced to expand its operations.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Israel will lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods by April 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.