Mexico: Another Mayoral Candidate Shot Dead

Mexico: Another Mayoral Candidate Shot Dead
Image copyright: Azael Rodriguez/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Alfredo Cabrera, who was running for mayor in the town of Coyuca de Benítez, was gunned down ahead of his closing campaign rally in the Mexican state of Guerrero.

  • The attack at point-blank range on Wednesday reportedly unfolded as Cabrera, the candidate for the opposition coalition, was preparing to address about 300 supporters.

The Spin

Narrative A

It has become quite common in Mexico for criminal organizations to engage in pre-election violence at the municipal level as influence over local power is crucial to their business and much easier to hold than at a state or federal level. This was their latest — but certainly not their last — attempt to get their preferred candidate elected.

Narrative B

While there is indeed a correlation between gang violence and political violence in some Mexican states, this oversimplification fails to explain how political violence can be high despite relatively low levels of gang-related crimes. Power dynamics and local-level disputes also contribute to this worrisome trend.

Metaculus Prediction

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