The murder of another mayoral candidate puts the spotlight on violence in local elections
Mexico News DailyMar 04
Mexico's López Obrador Mourns Mayoral Candidate's Killing
The Facts
Mexican Pres. Andrés Manuel López Obrador has expressed his sadness over the murder of his fellow Morena party member and mayoral candidate for Celaya, Bertha Gaytán, on Monday — the first day of her campaign.
The outgoing president offered condolences to her family, and stated that episodes of violence against political hopefuls ahead of the June elections are "very regrettable."
The Spin
Narrative A
It has been quite common in Mexico for criminal organizations to engage in pre-election violence at the municipal level as influence over local power is crucial to their business and much easier to hold than at a state or federal level. This was their latest — but certainly not their last — attempt to get their preferred candidate elected.
Narrative B
While there is indeed a correlation between gang violence and political violence in some Mexican states, this oversimplification fails to explain how political violence can be high despite relatively low levels of gang-related crimes. Power dynamics and local-level disputes also contribute to this worrisome trend.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that the US will deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.