Michigan Primaries: Trump, Biden Win Big

    Michigan Primaries: Trump, Biden Win Big
    Photo: Scott Olson/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

    The Facts

    • On Tuesday, Pres. Joe Biden won the Michigan Democratic presidential primary and former Pres. Donald Trump prevailed in that state's Republican primary — pushing the US closer to a rematch of the 2020 presidential election.

    • With 95% of the vote counted, Biden had secured 81% of the vote, while Trump had earned 68% of the GOP vote.


    The Spin

    Republican narrative

    A victory in the pivotal state of Michigan is well within reach for Republicans, with Trump, the inevitable GOP nominee, showing his dominance in the state. On the other hand, Biden — who squeaked by in the state in 2020 — is wobbling because of the large chunk of Muslim and Arab voters who are horrified with his policies. Biden is beatable in Michigan, and this could prove to be a vulnerability in other states as well.

    Democratic narrative

    Biden is on firm footing. Michigan voters knew the president was going to run away with it, so a portion of the electorate chose to use their votes to have their voices heard. Looking forward to the general election, the president has plenty of time to win over those who protested. And once they realize the alternative is Trump, they'll come out in support of Biden and the Democratic Party will unite en masse to face down Trump's threat to democracy.

    Nerd narrative

    There’s a 52% chance that Trump would win a 2024 presidential election matchup with Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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