Myanmar’s junta may be on the verge of ‘collapse’
Washington PostDec 07, 2023
Myanmar Opposition Claims Drone Attacks on Capital
The Facts
Myanmar's anti-junta National Unity Government (NUG) has claimed to have launched simultaneous drone attacks against military targets in the capital, Nay Pyi Taw.
A group allegedly involved in the incident stated that 28 improvised one-way drones were used on Thursday morning to attack the military headquarters, a major airbase next to the international airport, and the residence of junta leader Min Aung Hlaing.
The Spin
Narrative A
After three years in power, Myanmar's military junta is finally losing its grip on power, as pro-democracy fighters and ethnic rebel groups have joined forces to defeat the regime. As mismanaging the junta's collapse could create total and bloody chaos, the Biden admin and other international actors must step in to prepare the exiled National Unity Government.
Narrative B
Beside it being premature to talk about a potential military junta collapse in Myanmar due to the absence of central command in the opposition, such a development would be risky, as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations would likely not be able to advance a contingency plan after failing to implement its Five-Point Consensus. A negotiated solution is the only way out of this crisis.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Myanmar will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.