The war in Gaza may widen. The Biden admin is getting ready for it.
POLITICOJan 04
Netanyahu States Opposition to Palestinian State
The Facts
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a news conference on Thursday that he has told the US he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any postwar plan, adding that Israel would only agree to gaining security control over "all territory west of the Jordan," including the Gaza Strip.
When asked by reporters, Netanyahu asserted that plans in an NBC report being prepared by the US would inevitably include the creation of a Palestinian state after he leaves office. He has claimed most Israelis oppose this, citing territories that have been transformed into bases for attacks on Israel after its withdrawal. Another question saw him state that Israel was currently attacking Iran, as opposed to its proxies.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered large swaths of the strip uninhabitable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and has transformed Gaza into a wasteland. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.
Pro-Iran narrative
Israel, with the full backing of the US, is committing genocide in Gaza, something Iran and its allies cannot tolerate. As resistance groups like the Houthis show their solidarity with Palestinians by enforcing a blockade on Israel, Joe Biden must understand that supporting Israel's crimes will only lead to further escalation in the region. The resistance's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, not spark a far larger regional conflict. However, if the US and Israel continue to flagrantly disregard international law, the resistance may be forced to expand its operations.
Nerd narrative
There's a 30% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.