Stuff
StuffFeb 07
Papua Rebels Might Release Kidnapped New Zealand Pilot
The Facts
The West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) Wednesday ordered its armed faction to release a New Zealand pilot it took hostage a year ago in a remote and mountainous area of Nduga in Indonesia's Papua province.
The kidnapped pilot, Phillip Mehrtens, was flying a small aircraft for Susi Air, providing "vital air links and supplies to remote communities," when he was abducted by armed rebels on Feb. 7, 2023, reportedly as a bargaining chip to advocate for Papua's independence.
The Spin
Narrative A
Papua's demand for recognition of independence in exchange for a hostage is a desperate attempt to attract international attention toward the West Papuan crisis. Instead of using the pilot as a pawn for high-level political negotiations, the rebels should call for the UN to mediate the conflict.
Narrative B
This incident has renewed attention to one of the world's least-known and longest-running conflicts, which is why the TPNPB shouldn't lose its bargaining position. It should only free Mehrtens if Indonesia allows Papua to become a sovereign country after more than six decades.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that Indonesia will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.