Biden in worse trouble than Trump with Catholic voters – especially if they go to Mass
Catholic HeraldApr 23
The Facts
A new Pew Research Center poll shows 55% of US Catholics say they would vote for former US Pres. Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, compared to 43% for incumbent Pres. Joe Biden. Biden won the demographic 50-49% in 2020.
Biden still holds a 49-47% lead among Hispanic Catholics, but that's much narrower than a similar Pew poll from 2020 that had Biden leading Trump by 67-26% for that demographic.
The Spin
Republican narrative
While Biden claims to be a practicing Catholic, he continues to support gender and abortion laws antithetical to the Church's teachings. So it makes sense that more and more true Catholics are distancing themselves from him and backing Trump, who would better represent their interests in the White House.
Democratic narrative
Ethnonationalism has unfortunately spread into some factions of the Church and Trumpism has filled a void left by past liberal-minded Church leaders. But that doesn't mean the old guard is gone. Pro-democracy Christians have an opportunity to stop this political religion in its tracks by backing Biden, who truly represents their values.
Nerd narrative
There's a 52% chance that Joe Biden will be reelected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.