Biden’s Electoral Prospects Continue to Fade
PJ MediaMar 15
Polls: Biden Gains on Trump in 6 Battleground States
The Facts
A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll has shown Pres. Joe Biden advancing against Republican rival Donald Trump in six of seven key swing states. Biden has trailed in national and battleground state polls for roughly the past five months.
While Biden is still trailing overall, the poll suggests he's narrowed the gap — especially in Michigan and Pennsylvania where the two candidates are tied at 45%. Data shows he has come within 2 points in Nevada while taking a 1-point lead in Wisconsin, where Trump led by 4 points last month.
The Spin
Republican narrative
Donald Trump continues to lead Joe Biden in the vast majority of polls, both nationally and in key swing states, as voters across America wake up to Biden's terrible record on the economy, immigration, and national security. While the Democrat-allied media will attempt to generate some enthusiasm for Biden by claiming that he is catching up to Trump, the truth remains that the Democrats' only hope in November is to engage in more shenanigans. The people are tired, and there's no way Joe Biden will win if there's a fair election.
Democratic narrative
Joe Biden's re-election path may appear difficult, but several factors play in his favor, not least improvements in the economy and the Democratic party's performance in the recent elections. Most importantly, Trump is still facing a litany of legal issues that are yet to be resolved. Voters' “social desirability” bias is bound to play against Trump, especially if he is convicted in any of the many cases he is battling right now.
Nerd narrative
There is a 61% chance that a debate will be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.