Portugal: Montenegro-Led Alliance Claims Victory

Portugal: Montenegro-Led Alliance Claims Victory
Image copyright: Horacio Villalobos#Corbis/Contributor/Corbis via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Portugal's center-right Democratic Alliance, led by Luís Montenegro, claimed victory Sunday in a closely-fought snap election — despite no party winning a majority — with almost 99% of votes counted.

  • While the Democratic Alliance and the Socialist Party won 79 and 77 seats, respectively, the far-right Chega party scored a victory on 48 seats.

The Spin

Right narrative

Chega is merely five years old, and it was obviously not expecting a full-scale victory. Estimates suggested it would corner 15-20% of the vote share. Therefore, an 18% share should be perfectly acceptable and indicate a humongous rise from the 1.3% it had in 2019 and 7.2% in 2022. Its goal of rupturing Portugal's five-decade-old bipartisan system has now been achieved, which is a major accomplishment.

Left narrative

Chega's gaining of electoral legitimacy in Portugal is part of a broader trend in Europe. In recent years, far-right political parties have strengthened in Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, France, and Germany. They have risen either as standalone entities or in alliances. Besides mainstream items on its agenda like fighting corruption and stricter immigration checks, Chega also proposes controversial measures like chemical castration for sex offenders. Warning bells ought to go off at least now in Europe.

Metaculus Prediction

Political split



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