Portugal votes in a general election where mainstream moderates are trying to keep populists at bay
EL PAÍS EnglishMar 10
Portugal Nominates Montenegro as Next Prime Minister
The Facts
The leader of Portugal's Democratic Alliance coalition (AD), Luís Montenegro, has been nominated to be the country's next prime minister. This follows the country's parliamentary election in which the AD won 80 seats, the Socialists 78, and the rightist Chega party 50.
Montenegro became head of the center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) — the largest party in the AD — in 2022 after the Socialists won a majority in January that year. Prime Minister António Costa announced his resignation last November over corruption allegations, resulting in the AD's win in the March 10 election.
The Spin
Left narrative
The recent scandals among a few Socialists and Democrats have unfortunately stained the reputation of Portugal's moderate faction. While this has given Chega historic growth in parliamentary seats, the majority of the country is still eager to keep the far-right out of power. With a fresh face leading the centrist coalition, the longstanding Socialist party and its Democratic counterparts have an opportunity to regain public trust and maintain ties with the EU — an integral part of the country's economy that Chega hopes to destroy.
Right narrative
Portugal's mainstream may have control for a little longer, but the future is with Chega. Chega's support jumped from 7% to 18%, largely thanks to young voters, one-third of whom have left the country due to dire economic prospects. Portugal's failed economic redistribution policies have only remained thanks to billions in subsidies from Brussels. Currently, young people can only obtain low-wage jobs in the tourism sector, so unless the Socialists decide to stop being socialist, Chega's popularity will only grow.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that any Member State will leave the Eurozone before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.