Israel Is Losing This War
The NationJan 18
Qatar: Hamas Gives Initial Approval for Hostage Deal
The Facts
Qatar signaled on Thursday that Hamas gave its initial approval for a proposal regarding the phased release of Israeli hostages held in the Gaza Strip and an extended pause in the fighting. Though there have been reports that Israel has also signed off on the deal, an unnamed Israeli official told local media that no such approval had been given.
As the Israeli government internally considers the proposal, senior Hamas officials — such as political leader Ismail Haniyeh and other high-ranking members of the group — are expected in Cairo for their own discussions over the coming days, including with Egyptian officials. Hamas has said that only a permanent ceasefire would lead to freeing the hostages, something that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected.
The Spin
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel is losing its war in Gaza. After over three months and 25K dead Palestinians, Israel has failed to release hostages via military operations, to kill Hamas's top leaders, or to create conditions advantageous to ending this long drawn-out conflict. Even then, if Israel did manage to achieve the majority of its war goals, it still would be left without a clear plan of action for the day after the war. Destroying a group like Hamas is a fool's errand, and Netanyahu has dug Israel into a hole that it will have a tough time climbing out of. Israel should accept a comprehensive ceasefire.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though, of course, this war has not been easy, Israel has made steady progress in Gaza, first neutralizing Gaza City before moving on to other population centers like Khan Younis. Israel has substantially degraded Hamas's military capabilities and leadership and even partially degraded elite Hezbollah units stationed along Israel's northern border. Indeed, as Israel's enemies should recognize, Israel's raw military power should not even be up for debate, and the country will fight and negotiate as it sees fit to achieve its goals.
Nerd narrative
There's a 55% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.