Qatar: Stalemate in Gaza Cease-Fire Negotiations Amid Rafah Operation

Qatar: Stalemate in Gaza Cease-Fire Negotiations Amid Rafah Operation
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The Facts

  • Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani said on Tuesday that negotiations regarding a cease-fire in Gaza had reached a stalemate due to Israel's most recent operation in the strip, adding: "what happened with Rafah sent us backward."

  • This comes as the UN reported that over 500K Palestinians have been displaced in recent days, as fighting has continued in both Rafah and northern Gaza. The agency added that no food has entered through the enclave's two main entry points, as around 1.1M Palestinians are said to be "on the brink of starvation."

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has gotten out of hand, and the Biden admin. will not support any further offensive action in Rafah. Netanyahu must keep his promises and work with US allies to find a resolution to this conflict.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel has reached a decisive point in this conflict. If the country gives in to international pressure, it will make clear to Israel's enemies that it is weak and cannot stand up for itself. Such a suggestion will only encourage another attack like Oct. 7., which would be simply unacceptable. Israel must continue to push into Rafah and win this war.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The famine in Gaza is only getting worse, yet the US and international community more broadly continue to sit on their hands. Israeli civilians are blocking trucks of food destined for Gaza, and the best the US can do is say how outraged it is. Though the individuals attacking these convoys are extremists, they are emblematic of a far larger problem that treats Palestinian life as a nonissue.

Metaculus Prediction

Establishment split



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