The war in Gaza may widen. The Biden admin is getting ready for it.
POLITICOJan 04
Report: Biden's Patience with Netanyahu 'Running Out'
The Facts
According to four anonymous officials, US Pres. Joe Biden is growing increasingly frustrated with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, reportedly due to his resistance to abide by US priorities — including his refusal to release Palestinian tax revenues and his unwillingness to seriously discuss post-war governance in Gaza.
Over the weekend, Netanyahu vowed to continue the war until "total victory," which he has defined as dismantling Hamas, returning all Israeli hostages, and ensuring that Gaza will never again constitute a threat to Israel.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip unlivable. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 35.3K Palestinian civilian deaths in the Israel-Gaza conflict before July 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
