Chinese economy will continue to defy its ill-intentioned critics
Chinadaily.com.cnApr 11
Report: China's GDP Grows 5.3% in Q1 2024
The Facts
According to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, the PRC's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.3% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024.
The country's stronger-than-expected growth comes after a 5.2% rise in 2023's fourth quarter, beating the forecast of 4.6% by a Reuters poll of analysts.
The Spin
Pro-China narrative
China's economy has grown faster than expected in the first three months of the year despite COVID, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and the US-China trade war. Given the country's stronger-than-expected exports and manufacturing capital expenditure and several fiscal and monetary policy measures taking effect, the PRC's second-quarter GDP would accelerate to over 5.5%, consolidating the economic recovery in 2024.
Anti-China narrative
While China's growth has been stronger than anticipated, it's uneven. The world's second-largest economy is battling real estate crises, unemployment, deflationary pressures, weak consumer demand, and mounting government debt. Just this week alone, the blue-chip CSI300 Index tumbled 0.5%, while the Shanghai Composite indexes fell 1%. Despite the "promising" data, it's clear that momentum is waning in the Chinese economy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that China's GDP will overtake the US Before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.