Outgunned and exhausted: what hope for Ukraine if US military aid dries up?
GuardianFeb 11
Russia Escalates Attacks as Ukraine Suffers Continued Ammo Shortages
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The Facts
Following the fall of the Donetsk city of Avdiivka to Russian troops over the weekend, Russian forces have launched multiple attacks to the west of the city in an effort to secure further battlefield gains.
Russian forces have also intensified their efforts in numerous areas across the front line, according to the latest update from Ukraine's armed forces.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The US passage of a $60B military aid package for Ukraine is a positive step towards addressing the issue of Kyiv's ammunition shortages, but it's just as important that European countries plug their own spending gaps and elevate their aid commitments. If Ukraine continues to fall short of ammunition and key supplies, it will face a slow-motion defeat on the battlefield that would spell disaster for the risk of future Russian expansionism against NATO.
Pro-Russia narrative
Following the avoidable loss of Ukrainian territory and men throughout this conflict, Ukraine's counteroffensive has now clearly failed. Committing further funding to arms will simply bring about more death and destruction. Ukraine would never have attempted to fight this war against Russia without US and EU weapons. Now that this support is running dry, Ukraine must accept the reality that Russia will never cease its defense of the Donbas or Crimea.
Nerd narrative
There is a 21% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.