South Carolina GOP Primary: Trump Defeats Haley

    South Carolina GOP Primary: Trump Defeats Haley
    Photo: Win McNamee/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

    The Facts

    • Former Pres. Donald Trump on Saturday won the Republican primary in South Carolina with 59.8% of the vote, beating former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who captured 39.5% of the vote.

    • Trump went into the South Carolina primary with the endorsement of nearly every statewide elected GOP official and has now solidified his position as the party's likely nominee.


    The Spin

    Pro-Trump narrative

    Haley's communications team can put all the positive spin it wants on her massive defeats, but the writing is on the wall, and Trump is the inevitable GOP nominee. She hasn't won anything this campaign season, so there's no reason to believe she'd be able to defeat Biden. She should accept Trump's victory and get behind him so the party can be unified for the general election.

    Anti-Trump narrative

    Haley has a large following — including with independents — and a different point of view from Trump. So she should stay in this race for however long she feels is necessary to put forth her opinions and show the Republican Party that Trump is the wrong choice. Continuing to run also keeps her in line to replace Trump should something unforeseen happen to the ex-president.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 97% chance that Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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