The Lancet: Dramatic declines in global fertility rates set to transform global population patterns by 2100
HealthdataMar 15
Study: Global Fertility Rates to Plunge by 2100
The Facts
According to a study published in The Lancet on Wednesday, 198 of 204 (97.1%) countries by 2100 will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain their respective population sizes.
Researchers from the University of Washington estimate that the global fertility rate, which has fallen from 4.84 children per woman in 1950 to 2.23 in 2021, will drop to 1.59 by the end of this century.
The Spin
Narrative A
Nations of varying demographics and economic ranks will not be able to avoid the consequences if these trends are allowed to continue. Lower-income countries must offer better access to contraceptives and female education, and wealthier nations must prioritize policies that support a robust social security system and open immigration to maintain population size and economic growth. Otherwise, the world will be in deep trouble.
Narrative B
Lower fertility rates don't pose an existential threat to the planet because a shrinking population could alleviate strain on global resources and reduce carbon emissions. These studies tend to over sensationalize the socio-economic consequences of slow fertility rates, which can lead to more restrictions on women's rights to contraception and to pursue education and work over having a family. There's no fertility crisis just yet.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that it would take at least 1.38K years to recover the population above 1B again if the human population declines to fewer than 100M, according to the Metaculus prediction community.