US vs. Russia: Why the Biden strategy in Africa may be failing
POLITICOApr 22
Survey: US No Longer 'Most Influential' Global Power in Africa
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The Facts
A new Gallup poll asked people in 36 African countries about China, Germany, Russia, and the US and found that the latter has lost its place as the most influential global power in the region.
The US was the only global superpower whose median approval ratings fell (from 59% in 2022 to 56% in 2023), and the image of its leadership in Africa now trails that of China by two points.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
America has lost ground in Africa as military coup governments that recently spread across the continent are unwilling to negotiate a democratic transition of power, particularly because Russia has provided them with weapons and mercenaries. Under these circumstances, Washington has limited alternatives to hold on to its partnerships in Africa.
Establishment-critical narrative
This poll confirms what the world already knew: Africans are fed up with the deep-rooted Western paternalism, particularly that of the US, as their influence over and military presence in the continent have done little to tackle terrorism. If the West wants to blame anyone for losing ground in Africa, the culprit should be its own incompetence.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that China will surpass the US economically, militarily, and scientifically by 2062, according to the Metaculus prediction community.