Taiwan Ally Tuvalu Names New Prime Minister

Taiwan Ally Tuvalu Names New Prime Minister
Image copyright: Mario Tama/Staff /Getty Images news via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-China narrative

Tuvalu will accept the One-China principle sooner or later, as the international community has gradually shown that distancing from Taiwan secessionist authorities is an inevitable trend of our times. As climate change and rising seas put Pacific Islands under threat, the dollar diplomacy gets more and more useless compared to cooperating with Beijing.

Anti-China narrative

While it's uncertain if Tuvalu will be able to keep resisting Chinese pressure over its relationship with Taiwan in the long term, its small population and high wealth, as well as its Christianity-related opposition to the Chinese Communist Party have made it harder for China-aligned leaders in the archipelago — Taiwan's longest standing Pacific ally — to convince their countrymen to fall into the Chinese trap.

Metaculus Prediction


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