Court may be wary of giving chop to MFP
BangkokpostJan 27
Thailand: Election Commission Seeks to Dissolve Opposition Party
The Facts
Thailand's election authority unanimously decided to ask the constitutional court to dissolve the reformist Move Forward Party (MFP) for violating the prohibition of insulting the royal family. If the court agrees, the party's leaders could be banned from politics for 10 years.
The MFP, which won last year's general election, had sought to amend the royal defamation law, to which the court ruled the move unconstitutional. Violating the law can result in up to 15 years in prison, though no one from the MFP was punished.
The Spin
Narrative A
While the court is typically on the side of the constitutionalists, this time may be different given the result of the court's dissolution of the FFP. The public is growing more in favor of the MFP and Pita, who could very well take charge of the government once the existing Senate term concludes. It's time for the court to consider a more nuanced approach in balancing public criticism with maintaining the monarchy.
Narrative B
While the legal actions being taken against the MFP will undoubtedly impact Thai politics and society, the fact of the matter is that Pita's party has been openly encouraging widespread violations of the Constitution. By campaigning on this issue, the MFP has clearly instigated anger toward the constitutionally protected royal family — an act that puts the monarchy and its government at risk.
Nerd narrative
There's a 60% chance that Thailand will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.