Trump Wins New Hampshire GOP Primary

    Trump Wins New Hampshire GOP Primary
    Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images News via Getty Images

    The Facts

    • Former Pres. Donald Trump won the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday, re-affirming his lead for the GOP 2024 presidential nomination.

    • Trump won soundly over Nikki Haley, inching closer to a face-off with the likely Democratic nominee, Pres. Joe Biden. This comes as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who withdrew just prior to the New Hampshire primary and endorsed Trump, mustered only 1% of votes cast.

    The Spin

    Anti-Trump narrative

    Trump is riding high on toxic euphoria that could fizzle as his legal woes continue to mount. Despite the endorsements of former rivals Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy, Haley still had strong gains with GOP moderates, independents, and those with college degrees. It's not time yet for Haley to give in — especially with the South Carolina primary a month away.

    Pro-Trump narrative

    If Iowa and New Hampshire haven't shown Republican voters which way the wind is blowing, nothing will. Even in South Carolina, Nikki Haley's home state, Trump is polling strongly. Haley should see the writing on the wall and throw her support behind the former president's momentum in a show of unity. Trump is on track to soundly defeat Joe Biden in November.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 3% chance that Nikki Haley will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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