The Importance of Alliance as a Means of Deterrence: Sweden and Finland Decision to Join NATO
Modern DiplomacyDec 26, 2023
Turkish Parliament Approves Sweden’s NATO Bid
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Sweden’s imminent accession to NATO and Finland’s approval last year are key diplomatic wins for international security. Peace is attained through unity and strength, so adding two historically neutral countries from northern Europe to the military alliance will go a long way toward deterring aggression. With Russia on the offensive in Ukraine, all hands must be on deck to stop further attacks. While some countries may want to keep out of conflict, modern defense requires a unified front, and NATO is the main protector of the global order.
Establishment-critical narrative
NATO claims to seek peace in Europe, but the fact is that the expansion of the aggressive military alliance is only destabilizing the continent. NATO has essentially become an anti-Russian alliance that seeks to provoke Moscow and create conflict. Moreover, NATO is destroying the concept of neutrality and non-interventionism by calling on all members to pick a side in conflicts that have nothing to do with them. NATO is hostile toward its perceived enemies, and Sweden is actually inching closer towards provoking conflict, not deterring it.
Nerd narrative
There's a 99% chance Sweden will join NATO before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.