David Gauke: The lesson of the local elections - more Street, less Hall
Conservative HomeMay 06
UK: Downing Street 'Shelves' Plan for Summer General Election
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The Facts
The Telegraph reported Sunday that UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is no longer considering a summer 2024 general election, following recent by-election losses for his Conservative Party.
Last week, the Tories lost 474 council seats in England, and now sit as the third largest locally represented party (515) behind the Liberal Democrats (522 up 104), and the Labour Party (1.2K, an increase of 186).
The Spin
Right narrative
Despite heavy local defeats, it now seems unlikely that the Tories will oust Sunak before the next general election. While there is some hope that a similar Labour performance come the end of the year would only translate into a hung Parliament, last week's real takeaway is that the Conservative Party's moderate candidates performed better than their counterparts further to the right. The Conservatives must once again become a party of sensibility, rather than sensationalism, if there is any hope of a respectable general election outcome.
Left narrative
There is no silver lining to recent results for the Conservatives, and Sunak only remains in the job because rivals within his party understand that to become prime minister now would be career suicide. Postponing the election until after Summer will not change the reality for the Conservative party — there is no way back to Downing Street for Sunak or the Tories.
Nerd narrative
There is a 97% chance that Labour will have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.