UK Elections: Savanta Poll Forecasts PM Sunak to Lose Seat

UK Elections: Savanta Poll Forecasts PM Sunak to Lose Seat
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The Facts

  • A Telegraph/Savanta/Electoral Calculus poll has predicted that Rishi Sunak will become the first UK prime minister to lose his constituency seat in a general election, according to data taken from 18K people between June 7-18.

  • Alongside Sunak, whose constituency is predicted to see a 34% swing away from the Tories in favor of an 18% increase for Labour and a 15% increase for Reform UK, Savanta's poll also sees Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Home Secretary James Cleverly losing their seats.

The Spin

Tory narrative

It would be disingenuous to suggest that the Tories still have a chance to remain in power after next month’s election, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to stop the bleeding. Polls forecast varying levels of doom, and it’s important for the party’s morale, and potentially its survival, to have as strong a representation in Parliament as possible. Sunak and his party need to keep up the fight and show how Conservative policies are working, even if it’s too late to win a majority of seats.

Labour narrative

While Labour’s ascension to power is practically inevitable, securing as large a majority as possible remains a priority that will allow Keir Starmer to govern quickly and effectively. Labour has a lot to fix after a decade-plus of Tory rule, and an overwhelming majority in Parliament would allow the party to govern as it pleases. Labour must keep its foot on the gas and win the largest electoral mandate in British history.

Reform narrative

Despite Savanta's prediction that Reform will win no seats, it is important to note that polling began only days after Farage's return to the helm of the party, which has since witnessed a surge in popularity. Irrespectively, the message is clear — Sunak and his party no longer hold the support of the British public.

Metaculus Prediction

Public figures in this story

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