Progress has been made on small boats, but there is a long way to go
The TelegraphJan 01
UK: Small Boat Channel Crossings Fell 36% in 2023
The Facts
Data from the UK government shows there were about 30K migrants detected crossing the English Channel in 2023, down from more than 45K the year prior — a decrease of approximately 36%.
2023's provisional statistic sits higher than 2021, which saw 28.5K migrants cross the English Channel. Comparatively, there were 8.5K crossings in 2020, 1.8K crossings in 2019, and 300 crossings in 2018.
The Spin
Right narrative
With stopping the boats being one of Sunak's core pledges having entered office, the Home Office's statistics are a welcome return for the government and a positive start to 2024. While it's clear that there is much more to do, and the near-return channel crossing levels seen in 2021 will not satisfy anyone, progress is certainly being made — especially compared to the dangerous upward trends being witnessed across the rest of Europe.
Left narrative
With 2023 being the second-highest year for channel crossings since the problem's rise, Sunak has in no way delivered on his promise and finished 2023 having completed only one of his five pledges. The administration has failed to remedy the problem created on its own watch and continues to hedge bets on popularity via gimmick policies such as the Rwanda Bill rather than truly attempting to revive the UK.
Nerd narrative
There is a 90% chance that the Labour Party will have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.