UK Special Election: Labour Flips 2 Conservative-Held Seats

    UK Special Election: Labour Flips 2 Conservative-Held Seats
    Photo: Eddie Keogh/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

    The Facts

    • Britain's Labour Party flipped two seats held by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party in Thursday's by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood.

    • Results showed Gen Kitchen won Wellingborough in central England decisively, while Damien Egan took over the House of Commons seat in southwest England's Kingswood.

    The Spin

    Narrative A

    With a national election coming up later this year, Sunak is desperate for a miracle. Sunak, the fifth Conservative leader since 2016, was already trailing 10-20 points behind Labour in opinion polls over the past couple years. Friday's results solidified how dire the situation is for the Conservatives.

    Narrative B

    Labour looks on track for a big win in the general election in a few months, but it shouldn't get too far ahead of itself. Israel's war in Gaza has reignited some systemic antisemitism within the party, which is the type of problem that could derail a party's best-laid election plans.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 95% chance the UK will have a Labour government before June 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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