Bird flu has hit U.S. dairy cattle for the first time. Here's what it means for milk supply.
CBSApr 01
US Dairy Cows Contract Bird Flu for First Time
The Facts
The US Dept. of Agriculture, Food and Drug Administration, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that cattle from farms in Kan. and Texas had tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza — the first time the virus has been detected in cattle.
The virus was later detected in a herd in Michigan that had recently received cows from Texas. Officials have also said "presumptive positive" test results have been received from herds in New Mexico and Idaho.
The Spin
Narrative A
This outbreak should not be a cause for alarm for humans. Scientists haven't found any evidence that this strain has changed in terms of making it easier to transmit to humans, indicating that the risk is low. Additionally, regulations for commercial dairy products ensure that pasteurized milk is safe for consumption.
Narrative B
Recent cases of bird flu in mammals are extremely worrying because they may suggest a mutation that's making it easier to transmit to humans. Additionally, multiple types of influenza viruses could potentially intermix within infected animals and create new viruses that could be even more harmful to mammals. This situation, and food supply chains, must be monitored extremely closely.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that there will be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive), according to the Metaculus prediction community.