The war in Gaza may widen. The Biden admin is getting ready for it.
POLITICOJan 04
US: 'No Way' to Ensure Israeli Security Without Palestinian State
The Facts
Seemingly in response to comments by Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, US Dept. of State spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Thursday that "no way" exists to solve Israel's long-term security concerns and the short-term challenges of rebuilding Gaza without the establishment of a Palestinian state. Despite reportedly growing disagreements between Israel and the US, he said that US support is "ironclad" and the US was merely "laying out for them the opportunity that they have."
Disagreements regarding Israel's plans for Gaza after the war have expanded recently, with a member of the country's war cabinet, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, saying late on Thursday that only a ceasefire deal would facilitate the release of Israeli hostages. Netanyahu has repeatedly said that the war will continue until Hamas has been destroyed and avoided discussions of Gaza's post-war governance.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered large swaths of the strip uninhabitable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and has transformed Gaza into a wasteland. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by September 2067, according to the Metaculus prediction community.