Iran willing to risk worse US sanctions over Russian drone factory - analysis
Jerusalem PostFeb 06, 2023
US Sanctions Entities Linked to Iran Drone Production
The Facts
The US on Thursday imposed new sanctions on 16 individuals and two firms involved with Iran's drone manufacturing, days after it launched an attack on Israel.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the aim was to "degrade and disrupt" key aspects of Iran’s offensive capabilities, making it "harder and costlier" to engage in what Yellen characterized as "destabilizing behavior."
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
While Western sanctions are an important step to defanging Iran's dangerous drone manufacturing programs, even more should be done. The US' previous sanctions on Iranian drone makers in 2023 prompted Russia to help Iran in this arena. Tehran's pivot towards Russia is dangerous geopolitically and allows Iran to skirt the consequences of sanctions. Western powers need to build on sanctions and target dismantling Iranian drone capabilities and the nations that enable it.
Establishment-critical narrative
Iran's bold attack on Israel with over 300 missiles and drones, though ineffective, has posed a challenge for its Western allies to balance support for Israel with restraint. The attack may push them towards dangerous escalation, potentially triggering further conflict with Israel. The situation remains highly unpredictable and fraught with risks, and Western hegemonic powers have proved unable to dampen the escalation potential.
Nerd narrative
There is a 20% chance that a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1K deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.