Von der Leyen to Seek Second Term as EC Head

    Von der Leyen to Seek Second Term as EC Head
    Photo: Joe Giddens - WPA Pool/Getty Images News via Getty Images

    The Facts

    • On Monday, during the Christian Democratic Union's (CDU) party conference in Berlin, Ursula von der Leyen declared her intention to run for a second, five-year term as president of the European Commission (EC).

    • On Saturday, Von der Layen had indicated her decision at the Munich Security Conference, claiming that, if she were to run again, she would emphasize increasing defense spending and appointing a defense commissioner.

    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    Ursula von der Leyen was unanimously chosen by the CDU to remain as the executive commission's candidate. This decision sends a strong message to Europe, as the European Peoples Party (EPP), which is dominated by Christian Democrats, is anticipated to maintain its majority in the legislature following the European elections that take place in June. It's unlikely that any other candidate will be able to realistically challenge von der Leyen for the job.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Ursula von der Leyen was confirmed by the EU Parliament and selected by EU leaders in 2019, lacking any form of democratic legitimacy. In the upcoming election, the European people will once again not vote on the Commission's executive. Rather, the political party with the highest percentage of votes will choose the presidency. Von der Leyen's path to remain commissioner is a glaring illustration of the EU's democratic shortcomings.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 78% chance that the President of the European Commission will be affiliated with the EPP following the 2024 elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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