Artificial Intelligence

Study: AI Systems to Roughly Match NYC's Carbon Emissions in 2025

Is AI's water use negligible compared to other industries, or an environmental crisis hidden by corporations?

Published DEC 19 2025

Study: AI Systems to Roughly Match NYC's Carbon Emissions in 2025

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Image credit: Unsplash

The Facts

According to a study published in the academic journal Patterns, AI systems could produce between 32.6 and 79.7 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions in 2025. This range is comparable to New York City's annual emissions, which total approximately 50 million tons.
Independent
guardian
Cell Press
The study by Dutch academic Alex de Vries-Gao from the VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies estimates AI water consumption could reach between 312.5 and 764.6 billion liters in 2025. This volume exceeds global annual bottled water consumption.
Verge
NDTV Profit
The International Energy Agency reported that AI-focused data centers draw as much electricity as aluminum smelters, and data center electricity consumption is expected to more than double by 2030. The largest AI data centers being built today will each consume as much electricity as 2 million households.
Tech Xplore
guardian
The Wall Street Journal
De Vries-Gao's study indicates that greenhouse gas emissions from AI use are now equivalent to more than 8% of global aviation emissions. The study is the first attempt to measure AI's specific environmental effect rather than data centers in general.
Tom's Hardware
Irish Examiner
This builds on earlier research indicating that global AI power demand could reach 23 gigawatts this year, about the same as the U.K.'s total electricity consumption, exceeding Bitcoin mining's total electricity consumption in 2024.
Verge
Ctrl F5
Daily Mail
The U.S. accounts for the largest share of data center electricity consumption at 45%, followed by China at 25% and Europe at 15%. In the U.K., an estimated 100 to 200 hyperscale data center facilities are currently in the planning system.
Independent
guardian

Sources Split

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The Spin

Techno-optimist narrative

Data centers use far less water than other industries and everyday activities. AI accounts for just 0.008% of America's freshwater consumption while supporting hundreds of millions of daily users, generating massive tax revenue per gallon that far exceeds golf courses or steel production. The panic over AI water use is manufactured clickbait that ignores basic math and scale.

Observer (NY)

Andy Masley Substack on Substack

Techno-skeptic narrative

AI systems will match New York City's entire carbon footprint by 2025 and consume water equivalent to the global bottled water market's annual consumption. Data centers generate emissions comparable to driving 300 billion miles while corporations hide the true environmental costs through inadequate disclosure. Building more AI infrastructure without transparency amounts to environmental recklessness.