Armenia, Azerbaijan Sign Peace Deal at White House

Armenia, Azerbaijan Sign Peace Deal at White House
Above: Donald Trump with Ilham Aliyev (L) and Nikol Pashinyan at the White House on Aug. 8, 2025. Image copyright: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

This historic peace deal marks a significant diplomatic achievement, bringing an end to 35 years of bloodshed and paving the way for new economic opportunities. The Trump Route will unlock the strategic potential of the South Caucasus region, creating jobs and prosperity while strengthening America's global leadership. Both leaders recognized Trump's unique ability to achieve what previous administrations had been unable to accomplish.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump’s brokering of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal — largely built on the groundwork laid by the Biden administration — seemed less about fostering lasting stability and more about chasing a quick political win. His administration failed to address the deeper regional grievances, leaving the agreement fragile and superficial. By prioritizing optics over substance, Trump essentially kicked the can down the road, risking future conflict.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Armenia–Azerbaijan peace accord unlocks a transit corridor that grants the U.S. exclusive development rights and weakens Russia's regional dominance, boosting American influence in the Caucasus and sidelining Kremlin ambitions. Additionally, Washington's strategic foothold in the Caucasus could potentially help it leverage an advantage in broader negotiations, including those involving Ukraine.

Establishment-critical narrative

Though the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace accord is welcomed, growing Western involvement risks destabilizing the region, undermining self‑sufficiency and disrupting existing agreements. The West is pursuing opportunistic motives and attempting to redirect the normalization of peace onto its own tracks, potentially disrupting the regional security architecture.

Metaculus Prediction



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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.13.0

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.13.0