Report: Asteroid 2024 YR4 Poses Rising Impact Risk for 2032

Report: Asteroid 2024 YR4 Poses Rising Impact Risk for 2032
Above: The James Webb Space Telescope. Image copyright:  Alex Wong/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

This asteroid is a legitimate threat that requires immediate attention and monitoring. Scientists must seriously consider potential defensive measures, including the possibility of deflection missions similar to the successful DART test.

Narrative B

Rising impact probability is a normal part of the observation process. Like previous potentially hazardous asteroids, continued monitoring will likely result in the threat being downgraded or eliminated entirely as orbital calculations become more precise.

Metaculus Prediction


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