Bolivia Votes in Presidential Runoff

Bolivia Votes in Presidential Runoff
Above: An Aymara couple wait for the opening of polls in Laja, west of La Paz, Bolivia, on Oct. 19, 2025. Image copyright: Martin Bernetti/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Regardless of which candidate wins the runoff, Bolivia will finally break from socialism at the ballot box. Whoever the next president is, however, he will have to fix an economic mess — and support from the U.S. and Western institutions will be crucial as the success of pro-market and pro-democracy reforms can make Bolivia a regional model and inspire similar shifts in the Western Hemisphere.

Establishment-critical narrative

The rightward turn in Bolivia may please Washington but it will eventually reignite unrest, deepen inequality and erase decades of progress made by and for the Bolivian people, including social gains and indigenous rights. U.S. financial support to Bolivia will likely be tied to the return of the DEA and renewed attacks on coca culture, threatening rural livelihoods and national sovereignty.

Metaculus Prediction



© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.17.0

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.17.0