China Offers Parents $500 in Bid to Boost Birth Rate

China Offers Parents $500 in Bid to Boost Birth Rate
Above: A man and a woman with a baby trolley in Hong Kong, China, on Oct. 23, 2023. Image copyright: Vernon Yuen/NurPhoto/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-government narrative

The new nationwide child care subsidy will tackle the twin challenges of a rapidly aging population and falling birth rates. After three consecutive years of population decline, China must change course or risk facing a population crash. The government's new scheme will help reverse this trend by assisting up to 20 million families each year with their child care costs.

Government-critical narrative

While the Chinese government's initiative is a welcome step in the right direction, much more is needed to reverse China's demographic trends. The sums involved are currently too small to impact either the birthrate or the other target of this policy, China's declining consumption rate. The policy, however, may lay the groundwork for more effective future initiatives.

Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies