China Growth Seen Outpacing Target Easing Stimulus Pressur
Bloomberg2 days
China's Second-Quarter GDP Beats Forecasts at 5.2%
Above: A public screen displays China's GDP figure for 2024 in Shanghai on April 3, 2025. Image copyright: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg/Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-China narrative
China's economy shows remarkable resilience, with GDP growth beating expectations despite Trump's trade war pressures. Strong exports and manufacturing output demonstrate the country's ability to adapt and find new markets, while government stimulus measures support key sectors. The robust first-half performance provides a solid foundation for achieving the full-year 5% growth target.
Anti-China narrative
The headline GDP numbers mask underlying economic fragility with weak consumer spending, persistent deflation, and a collapsing property market. Front-loaded exports artificially boosted growth, but this momentum will fade in the second half as trade tensions escalate. Without a major stimulus to address structural imbalances, China faces significant headwinds ahead.