Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
MetaculusNOV 2024
ECOWAS Holds Meeting over Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso Exit
Image copyright: KOLA SULAIMONKOLA SULAIMON/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
The withdrawal represents a direct challenge to regional integration and cooperation, threatening to fracture West Africa's economic unity and weaken collective bargaining power, while emboldening anti-Western alliances and disrupting crucial trade relationships worth billions.
Narrative B
The three AES nations view ECOWAS as a dysfunctional organization that kowtows to Western neo-colonial interests, particularly France, and has failed to address their security concerns. Meanwhile, AES has the capacity and commitment to address the region's security needs and development shortfalls.